Market Trend
As we approach 2025, the logistics landscape is set to face a mix of familiar and evolving challenges, particularly around key events like Chinese New Year (CNY) and shifting market dynamics. From factory shutdowns and port congestion to rising freight rates and the introduction of new shipping alliances, businesses must plan strategically to mitigate disruptions and optimize their supply chains.
In recent years, global supply chains have faced unprecedented disruptions due to geopolitical tensions, climate change, and unforeseen events. A survey by Maersk, involving over 2,000 European customers, revealed that more than 76% experienced operational delays in the past year, with 22% encountering over 20 disruptive incidents.
These disruptions have led to significant financial impacts, with 58% of cargo owners reporting higher-than-expected costs. In response, 53% of surveyed businesses are considering new sourcing locations, with 33% exploring near-shoring options. Preferred destinations include Turkey (11%), Egypt (7%), Poland (6%), Morocco (3%), and Romania (2%).
Despite the challenges, these events present opportunities to enhance supply chain resilience. According to McKinsey, 97% of companies restructured their supply chains in 2022, implementing strategies like inventory adjustments, multisourcing, and regionalization. Notably, 83% of these companies have benefited from increased resilience when facing new challenges.
For businesses, these insights underscore the importance of proactive supply chain management. Adopting flexible sourcing strategies, investing in digital tools for real-time monitoring, and fostering strong supplier relationships are crucial steps toward building more robust and adaptable supply chains.
While supply chain disruptions pose significant challenges, they also offer a chance to 'build back better.' By embracing resilience-focused strategies, companies can navigate uncertainties more effectively and maintain operational continuity in an ever-evolving global landscape.
The Impact of Chinese New Year 2025 on Global Logistics
Chinese New Year (CNY) in 2025 falls on January 29th, and its ripple effects on global logistics are expected to last 4-6 weeks as factories and operations gradually resume normal activity. Here’s what to anticipate:
Key Considerations:
- Factory Shutdowns: Production slowdowns will begin in early January, with complete or partial shutdowns extending up to six weeks. This could delay outbound production orders significantly.
- Rising Freight Rates: The holiday season often triggers front-loading, leading to increased transportation costs driven by peak season surcharges.
- Port Congestion: Heavy shipment volumes before and after the holidays are likely to cause congestion at Chinese ports, resulting in container shortages, longer wait times, and customs clearance delays.
- Reduced Workforce: Factories often operate with limited staff immediately after the holiday, which impacts timelines and delays the restoration of full operational capacity.
- Industries to Watch: Automotive, Fashion & Lifestyle, and Electronics & Technology industries are advised to prepare contingency plans to mitigate disruptions during this period.
Expert Suggestions for Managing CNY 2025 Challenges
- Plan Supply Chain Timelines Early: Engage with customers to adjust timelines and budget for higher Q1 shipping costs.
- Book in Advance: Pre-book shipments at least 2-3 weeks ahead to avoid delays.
- Explore Alternative Routes: Consider SEA-AIR or AIR-AIR services, or indirect routing options. While these may increase transit times, they can help bypass port congestion and related surcharges.
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2025 Ocean Freight Forecast
The logistics landscape in 2025 is expected to mirror 2024 trends with some key changes:
- Increased Capacity: An 8% rise in shipping capacity is anticipated, compared to a 3% demand increase, which could stabilize rates and ease volatility.
- Earlier Peak Seasons: To counteract delays caused by diversions like the Cape of Good Hope route, shippers are starting their planning earlier, resulting in an earlier-than-usual peak season.
- Market Volatility: Despite added capacity, unexpected disruptions could lead to fluctuating rates and limited space availability.
- Rate Fluctuations: Current rates for East Coast and West Coast routes are similar but could change, especially if disruptions like the potential ILA strike occur around mid-January.
- Blank sailings, previously used to balance supply and demand, will likely remain a response to vessel shortages, which affected 15-20% of operations in 2024.
New Shipping Alliances in 2025
The launch of new alliances will reshape the market:
- Gemini Cooperation: With 3.7 million TEUs of capacity and 26 mainline services, Gemini will target key east-west trade lanes using a hub-and-spoke model. It aims for over 90% on-time performance.
- MSC: After leaving the 2M Alliance, MSC focuses on direct port-pair services and selective vessel-sharing agreements, covering 20% of global container capacity.
- Premier and Ocean Alliances: Premier Alliance remains competitive on high-traffic routes with a 3.5 million TEU capacity, while the Ocean Alliance, extending its partnership to 2032, will continue offering stable service.
Predicted Contract Trends for 2025
- Short- vs. Long-Term Rates (STR vs. LTR): STR contracts are expected to gain traction due to market volatility. Index-linked contracts are also becoming popular for their consistency and cost efficiency.
- Carrier Strategies: While carriers may push for long-term deals, many fixed agreements in 2024 were not honored. Forwarders and carriers will likely balance STR and LTR pricing strategies.
- Focus on LCL: Less-than-Container Load (LCL) services are poised to become a key growth area in 2025.
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Northeast Asia to Australia/NZ Trade Capacity Sees Significant Growth
As of November 2024, there are sixteen roundtrip shipping services connecting Northeast Asia with Australia and New Zealand, up from fourteen services a year earlier. New standalone loops from Maersk (Northern Star) and MSC (Wallaby, Koala) highlight the expansion, alongside service adjustments and rationalizations. Despite these additions, standalone loops remain a minority, comprising only five of the total services, while the remaining eleven rely on vessel sharing agreements. The ANL (CMA CGM) and CoscoSL/OOCL consortium remains the dominant player in this trade, offering three connections.
Trade capacity has grown significantly, with an annualized one-way capacity of 2.68 million TEU, marking an 11% increase from November 2023. This rise reflects an additional 267,000 TEU and the deployment of ninety-two ships, eighteen more than the previous year. However, average vessel size has decreased slightly to 4,700 TEU, down 400 TEU, reflecting a strategic focus on higher frequency and fleet flexibility rather than sheer vessel size.
In a five-year context, the trade's annual capacity has recovered to near pre-pandemic levels, registering the second-highest capacity since 2019. While average vessel capacity dipped between 2023 and 2024, the overall trade remains robust, showcasing resilience and growth as shipping lines adapt to evolving market demands.
Developments in Oceania
Australia’s economic growth forecast for 2025 was lowered by Goldman Sachs, pointing to likely “negative spillovers” from incoming trade tariffs. Australia’s growth has slowed to a crawl this year as elevated interest rates — currently at a 13-year high of 4.35% — have hurt consumer spending.
In November 2024, Australia's inflation rate continued its downward trend, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by just 2.1% over the year to October, marking the lowest increase in three years. This decline brings inflation within the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) target range of 2–3% for the second consecutive month. The Australian Bureau of Statistics attributes this moderation to falling electricity and automotive fuel prices.
Despite this positive development, the RBA has maintained the cash rate at 4.35%, citing the need for sustained evidence of inflation stability before considering rate cuts. Economists anticipate that the RBA may not reduce interest rates until early to mid-2025, aiming to avoid potential economic downturns.
New Zealand Treasury says it expects to downgrade its economic and fiscal forecasts relative to Budget 2024 when it provides a half-year update next month, as the recession has been worse than expected. In a speech to the Chartered Accountants tax conference, chief economic advisor Dominick Stephens said the latest evidence suggested the recession would be deeper and last longer than predicted in May. The agency had forecast Gross Domestic Product to rise 0.2% in the June quarter, but it actually fell by the same amount. Spending on electronic cards in October was 1% lower than a year ago, and activity indicators showed little or no growth in recent months. Plus, businesses were reporting current trading conditions as being worse than any time since 2009, excluding the depths of the Covid-19 pandemic and its response.
New Zealand's apple and pear industry has demonstrated significant economic contributions, with a total revenue impact of $1.96 billion in 2023. This growth is attributed to increased productivity, investment in high-value varieties, and a reduction in land use. The sector employs over 12,000 permanent and seasonal workers and has seen its export value rise from $347 million to more than $892 million over the past decade.
Additionally, the industry has achieved notable sustainability gains, including a 70% decrease in chemical usage over the past ten years and a 19% reduction in the carbon footprint of packhouse and coolstore operations. These advancements underscore the sector's commitment to sustainable practices and its pivotal role in New Zealand's economy.
Trade Developments in Australia and New Zealand
Both Australia and New Zealand are actively pursuing trade diversification strategies to strengthen their economic resilience. Australia's trade surplus remains robust, bolstered by steady exports of raw materials like iron ore and natural gas to key Asian markets. Efforts are underway to expand economic ties beyond China, with emerging trade discussions involving the United Arab Emirates and India. The ongoing ASEAN-Australia-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (AANZFTA) continues to reinforce regional trade architecture.
New Zealand is focusing on Southeast Asia, with ministers reaffirming their commitment to trade expansion strategies outlined in joint economic engagement plans through 2040. Both nations are also coordinating efforts to uphold high standards in the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) and aim to strengthen ties with Pacific Island countries, emphasizing shared economic and sustainability goals within the Pacific Islands Forum framework.
These collaborative initiatives highlight the region's strategy to build more robust, sustainable, and diversified trade networks while maintaining critical partnerships within Asia and the Pacific.
Surge in Container Ship Orders Amid Upcoming Environmental Regulations
The container shipping industry is experiencing a significant increase in new vessel orders, driven by impending environmental regulations and the need for fleet renewal. In 2024, ship contracting has more than doubled compared to the previous year, with 286 ships totaling 3.3 million TEU added to the order book. This brings the current order book to 7.6 million TEU, representing 25% of the fleet's total capacity.
Major shipping companies are investing in dual-fuel vessels to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and comply with global regulations. For instance, Evergreen is reportedly seeking 11 methanol dual-fuelled 24,000 TEU ships, valued at approximately $2.75 billion. Similarly, MSC has ordered ten 21,000 TEU LNG dual-fuelled ships.
This trend reflects the industry's commitment to sustainability and adherence to forthcoming environmental standards. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is progressing towards binding global regulations aimed at achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions from ships, further influencing the surge in eco-friendly vessel orders.
For companies dealing in international trade, this shift presents opportunities to align with greener shipping practices, potentially offering more sustainable options to clients and enhancing brand reputation in an environmentally conscious market.
Ocean Freight Updates
- GRI and PSS notices from Carriers with effect on 1st of December 2024.
- Carriers booking utilization sits at 95%-100% to both AU and NZ, with space remaining tight until WK50. We suggest placing bookings at least 3-4 weeks in advance. We expect the situation to soften in early December.
- COSCO shipments to AU Transshipment via Singapore keep waiting times around 2-3 weeks in SIN, under their FIFO operational policy.
Rate Trend - Asia to Oceania
Carriers Increase Blank Sailings as Rate Hike Efforts Stall
In November 2024, container shipping lines on the Asia-Europe routes implemented General Rate Increases (GRIs) to boost spot freight rates. However, these efforts have had limited success, with Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) global composite rate declining by 1% during the period. Notably, the Shanghai-Rotterdam rate edged up by 1% to $4,071 per 40ft container, and the Shanghai-Genoa route increased by 3% to $4,520 per 40ft.
Despite these modest gains, forwarders report that repeated attempts by carriers to raise spot freight rates have been largely ineffective. Many are skeptical about the sustainability of new Freight All Kinds (FAK) rate levels scheduled for December 1, anticipating that these increases may not hold.
In response to the stagnant rates, carriers have announced additional blank sailings as a short-term measure to curtail capacity and support pricing. Drewry’s Cancelled Sailings Tracker indicates that between weeks 48 and 52, 70 sailings have been canceled across key East-West trade lanes, representing a 10% cancellation rate.
These developments suggest that carriers may need to implement more decisive capacity management strategies to align with demand and achieve desired rate levels. Shippers and freight forwarders are advised to stay informed about schedule changes and potential disruptions as the market adjusts to these capacity management efforts.
Carriers' GRIs Temporarily Elevate Asia-Europe Spot Rates Amid Market Challenges
In early November 2024, container shipping lines on the Asia-Europe routes implemented General Rate Increases (GRIs), leading to a temporary rise in spot freight rates. The Shanghai-Rotterdam rate increased by 8% to $3,396 per 40ft container, while the Shanghai-Genoa rate saw an 11% uptick to $3,648 per 40ft.
These rate hikes were largely attributed to the GRIs applied for shipments loaded from 1 November. For instance, MSC set a new Freight All Kinds (FAK) rate of $5,000 per 40ft from Asia to North Europe. However, industry feedback suggests that these increased rates are already being discounted and are unlikely to sustain beyond November, as demand remains low and customers report sufficient stock levels.
To manage capacity and support rates, carriers have engaged in blank sailings, with 21 out of 168 scheduled services on the Asia-North Europe and Asia-Mediterranean routes canceled in October, reducing capacity by approximately 300,000 TEU. Despite these efforts, analysts view the GRIs as a strategic move by carriers to strengthen their position in upcoming 2025 contract negotiations, though the fundamental market trend appears to be downward.
Canadian Ports Resume Operations Amid Backlogs Following Labor Disputes
In November 2024, Canadian ports, including Montreal and Vancouver, faced significant disruptions due to labor disputes, leading to substantial cargo backlogs. The Canada Industrial Relations Board (CIRB) intervened, issuing back-to-work orders to resume operations.
At the Port of Montreal, work recommenced on November 16, 2024, after a strike that began on October 31. The Montreal Port Authority reported over 5,000 TEUs on the ground, 22 vessels en route or at anchor, and approximately 2,750 TEUs of rail cargo awaiting handling. The authority estimated that restoring supply chain fluidity could take several weeks.
Similarly, the Vancouver Fraser Port Authority (VFPA) noted that a 10-day strike had "significantly disrupted port operations," resulting in multiple commercial vessels waiting offshore for berthing. To manage the congestion, VFPA implemented a priority-based anchorage allocation system and encouraged ship operators to consider slow steaming to align arrival times with berth availability.
Shipping lines, including Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, have warned customers of potential delays and advised monitoring their websites for updates on berthing times and cargo cut-offs. The backlog has also raised concerns about increased detention and demurrage charges due to challenges in securing appointments for container collection or drop-off. Maersk recommended that customers document attempts to secure appointments to address any additional fees incurred during the restart period.
Ocean Freight Snapshot (up to November 30th, 2024)
Check our snapshot for a quick glance on space, rate, equipment and transit times for Oceania
Air Freight Updates
The air cargo industry continues to experience shifting dynamics as peak season trends fail to meet expectations in some regions while others see sharp rate increases driven by local disruptions.
In Asia, hopes for a strong peak season out of the region have softened. Many shippers advanced shipments earlier this year to avoid potential disruptions, such as prolonged port strikes at US East and Gulf Coast ports. This has contributed to a flattening of airfreight rates. Data from the Baltic Airfreight Index shows overall rates were down 1.6% week-on-week (WoW) during a period when a seasonal surge was expected. However, some areas remain resilient:
- Hong Kong outbound routes increased by 1.9% WoW, remaining 0.2% higher year-on-year (YoY).
- Spot rates from China to the US East Coast showed upward momentum, particularly on transpacific lanes.
- Outbound Shanghai rates fell 2.8% WoW, reflecting declines across major lanes but remained 4.0% higher YoY.
Meanwhile, Europe has seen a significant rise in air cargo spot rates, particularly to the Americas. Congestion at São Paulo’s Guarulhos International Airport (GRU) has driven rates to Brazil sharply upward, contributing to global rate increases. According to WorldACD Market Data:
- European spot rates rose 10% WoW in mid-November to $2.71 per kilo, a 23% increase YoY.
- Average spot rates from Asia Pacific held steady at $4.39 per kilo, while a 3% rise in tonnage boosted global averages to $3.14 per kilo.
- Modest rate increases were also seen from Central & South America (+4%) and North America (+3%).
While Asia's peak season has been underwhelming, strong performances from Europe and specific regional disruptions are driving pockets of rate volatility. These mixed trends highlight the need for shippers to stay agile and plan strategically as market dynamics evolve.
Cross-Border E-Commerce Drives Air Cargo Growth Amid Peak Season
Cross-border e-commerce continues to be a significant driver of air cargo demand, particularly on routes from China to Europe and the United States. This surge is largely attributed to new Chinese market entrants and a robust appetite for online shopping, leading to a global air cargo growth of approximately 10% in 2024, surpassing earlier forecasts.
The increased e-commerce activity has resulted in higher load factors on outbound flights from Asia, creating an imbalance with lower inbound volumes. This disparity has prompted carriers to adjust capacities, including reallocating flights and utilizing charter services, to meet the heightened demand. Consequently, air freight rates have stabilized at elevated levels, influenced by factors such as fuel costs and general inflation.
Other sectors, including high-tech and pharmaceuticals, are also performing well, while traditional fashion retail has seen a decline in air cargo usage, opting for ocean freight due to economic pressures. The extended lead times caused by rerouted container vessels around the Cape of Good Hope have further contributed to the shift towards air freight for urgently required goods.
Hong Kong Airport's Three-Runway System Launches New Era for Global Air Cargo
Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) has inaugurated its three-runway system (3RS), significantly enhancing its capacity to handle up to 120 million passengers and 10 million tonnes of cargo annually. This expansion includes the completion of Terminal 2, reconfiguration of the centre runway, and the implementation of advanced infrastructure and systems.
Cathay Pacific, HKIA's flagship carrier, has restored its operations to pre-pandemic levels and plans to increase flight frequencies. The airline is investing HK$100 billion (US$12.8 billion) over seven years to upgrade its fleet and services, aligning with the new opportunities presented by the 3RS. Cathay Group CEO Ronald Lam emphasized that this development marks a new era for Hong Kong's aviation sector, enhancing connectivity between Hong Kong, mainland China, and global destinations.
In 2023, Cathay Pacific transported 1.38 million tonnes of cargo, a nearly 20% increase from the previous year, reflecting a strong recovery post-pandemic. HKIA maintained its status as the world's busiest cargo airport, handling 4.3 million tonnes of cargo last year. The airport is focusing on high-value and rapidly growing segments, including e-commerce, to bolster its cargo operations. Innovative initiatives, such as the sea-air transshipment model with the Greater Bay Area, streamline processes by completing screening and palletization upstream, reinforcing HKIA's role as a pivotal international cargo gateway.
Lufthansa Cargo Enhances Strategic Partnerships in China
Lufthansa Cargo has recently fortified its presence in China by signing Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) with three key entities: Shanghai Airport Authority, Air China Cargo, and China Postal Express & Logistics.
The MoU with Shanghai Airport Authority aims to enhance operational efficiencies and customer experiences, aligning with the goal of developing Shanghai Pudong Airport into a leading Asia-Pacific hub. CEO Ashwin Bhat emphasized Shanghai's significance as Lufthansa Cargo's largest freight hub after Frankfurt.
The agreement with Air China Cargo focuses on improving service offerings and strengthening the logistics corridor between China and Germany. Additionally, the partnership with China Postal Express & Logistics outlines a five-year plan to enhance capacity, settlement efficiency, digitalization, and sustainability.
These strategic collaborations reflect Lufthansa Cargo's commitment to expanding its footprint in China's rapidly growing airfreight market, particularly in the booming e-commerce sector.
Air Freight Snapshot (up to November 30th, 2024)
Customs, Inland Transport, Terminal and Regulation Updates
Port of Auckland Operations: Holiday Season Update
Port Operations Status
The Port of Auckland is experiencing high activity levels as the holiday season approaches. Increased container volumes and the diversion of two vessels to Multi-Cargo have led to some congestion. While maintenance dredging is complete, the “I” crane remains out of service but is expected to be operational by the end of December. Customers are encouraged to expedite import clearance to maintain capacity during this busy period. For details on holiday operating hours, please refer to the Port of Auckland’s website.
Container Terminal and Multi-Cargo Updates
The Container Terminal is operating efficiently despite strong demand and upcoming off-schedule vessel arrivals. Yard utilisation is manageable, and the Port is balancing landside and seaside capacity to keep cargo flowing. In Multi-Cargo operations, berth and yard utilisation is projected to reach full capacity by the weekend, while car yard capacity is expected to increase from 35% to 65%. Customers should check the Port’s website for updated berthing schedules and cargo cut-off times.
Marine Services and Safety Advisory
The Marine Services team has successfully managed a surge in ship traffic, including international Navy and cruise vessels alongside regular cargo ships. A safety reminder for Fergusson Truck Grid users: avoid entering lanes with active straddles and wait for straddles to exit before proceeding. Your cooperation ensures smoother and safer port operations for all.
Import Document Assessments Face Seasonal Surge Amid Biosecurity Demands
As the 2024-25 Brown Marmorated Stink Bug (BMSB) season begins, the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Forestry has reported a sustained rise in import entry lodgements. This trend is expected to intensify as the traditional Christmas peak approaches, driving high volumes of inspection activity. With workloads already at elevated levels, the department anticipates challenges in maintaining client service standards, particularly for non-urgent commodity inspections.
New South Wales (NSW) clients are currently experiencing longer wait times for some inspections due to the heightened workload. The department is actively deploying resources to balance the demands of increasing import volumes with its commitment to ensuring biosecurity and food safety. Despite pressures, efforts remain focused on adhering to the Client Service Charter's published timeframes wherever possible.
In light of these challenges, importers are encouraged to plan ahead, allowing for potential delays in inspection and assessment timelines. The department's proactive measures aim to safeguard Australia's biosecurity while supporting trade during this peak demand period.
Lyttelton Port Holiday Operations Update
Lyttelton Port's Marine Services will operate as usual, providing 24/7 coverage throughout the Christmas and New Year period. However, there will be a brief suspension of services from 12:00 PM to 2:00 PM on Christmas Day to allow marine staff to enjoy a festive lunch with their families.
This adjustment ensures minimal disruption while prioritizing the well-being of the port's dedicated team. Customers are encouraged to plan their operations accordingly during this time to avoid delays.
Key Updates on Rail and Road Disruptions in New Zealand
Rail Freight Disruptions: December 2024 - January 2025
Auckland's rail services will be fully closed from December 27, 2024, to January 27, 2025, affecting 16 business days. Freight and passenger transport to and from the Ports of Auckland and Tauranga will face interruptions. KiwiRail has announced capacity adjustments within the Golden Triangle to accommodate freight needs and is coordinating road transport solutions to minimize delays. Freight services between Ports of Auckland and Southdown will continue from January 3–24 before the final closure, with rail services resuming by 6:00 PM on January 27, 2025.
City Rail Link (CRL) Project Updates
The CRL project remains on track for completion in early 2026. Major works are being expedited during the lower freight volume period, and additional costs for transitioning freight to road transport are covered under the project. Estimated transit delays due to the switch to road transport are around 24 hours. KiwiRail is working with port partners to implement road bridging solutions, ensuring goods continue to move during the closures.
Additional Notes: Road Disruptions
In addition to rail closures, the Desert Road will be closed from January 6 to late February 2025, requiring alternative routing. KiwiRail is collaborating with Auckland Transport, NZTA, Police, and Auckland Council to manage truck traffic and mitigate the impact on road networks. Stakeholders are encouraged to plan freight movements carefully during this period to navigate these disruptions effectively.
Logistics Trends
- Samsung Heavy Industries secured AiP for its LNG carrier design with wing sails, enhancing propulsion efficiency and cutting emissions, showcasing ongoing eco-friendly innovation.
- Companies face challenges complying with emerging sustainability regulations, particularly in Scope 3 emissions measurement, requiring early action, resource assessment, and external expertise.
- Reusable transport packaging offers cost and environmental benefits, with experts urging firms to view sustainability as an asset and leverage advanced data tools for compliance.
- DP World partnered with SailGP to manage carbon-neutral logistics for the racing championship, leveraging its global network and expertise in sustainable transport solutions.
- PSA BDP is advancing sustainability via SBTi-aligned goals, launching a Carbon Dashboard to help clients cut freight emissions and aiming for circular logistics by 2050.
- Shipping firms are investing in dual-fuel vessels to reduce emissions amid rising decarbonisation pressures, with 65% of 2024 orders supporting alternative fuel technologies.
- Carnot Engines will test a hydrogen combustion engine on a cargo ship in 2025, exploring hydrogen's feasibility for maritime decarbonisation through innovative biomass-to-hydrogen sourcing.